Central Carrboro Traffic Went DOWN from 1997 to 2013

More People are Riding Buses, Biking and Walking in Carrboro

More People are Riding Buses, Biking and Walking in Carrboro

Did you know that many traffic counts in Carrboro were lower in 2013 than in 1997? Yep. In 1997, Carrboro was home to roughly 15,400 people. By 2013, the Census reported that number as closer to 20,800.

Despite adding over 5,000 residents and seeing downtown job growth, there were fewer cars on the streets all over central Carrboro in 2013 than there were 16 years earlier!

You can see for yourself by checking NCDOT’s traffic count maps at the end of this post. But let’s take a look at all the counts that went down, and those that went up. Out of curiosity, I also looked up a walkscore at a nearby address.

Traffic Counts from NCDOT that declined between 1997 and 2013

 

W. Main St by Chapel Hill Tire/Akai Hana (4% decline; Walkscore: 83)

1997: 4,700

2013: 4,500

N Greensboro between Short and Poplar: (8% decline; Walkscore: 86)

1997: 15,200

2013: 14,000

Rosemary St at Chapel Hill / Carrboro Town Line: (20% decline; Walkscore: 85)

1997: 10,500

2013: 8,400

W. Main St east of Blackwood: (26% decline; Walkscore: 55)

1997: 5,700

2013: 4,200

West Main between Lloyd and Main/Rosemary Split (30% decline; Walkscore: 91)

1997: 24,200

2013: 17,000

Main St between Greensboro and PTA Thrift (25% decrease; Walkscore: 86)

1997: 12,500

2013: 9,400

West Weaver St between N Greensboro and Center St (29% decrease; Walkscore: 86)

1997: 9,200

2013: 6,500

Traffic Counts that stayed the same Between 1997 and 2013

N Greensboro St just north of Blue Ridge Rd (0% decline/increase; Walkscore: 13)

1997: 6,000

2013: 6,000

S Greensboro between Carr and Old Pittsboro (0% decline/growth; Walkscore: 85)

1997: 12,000

2013: 12,000

Traffic Counts that went up Between 1997 and 2013

North Greensboro St between Morningside Dr and Hanna St: (6% increase; Walkscore:34)

1997: 6,600

2013: 7,000

Hillsborough Rd between Dillard and Greensboro St: (6% increase; Walkscore: 35)

1997: 1,600

2013: 1,700

Estes east of N Greensboro: (11% increase; Walkscore: 65)

1997: 12,600

2013: 14,000

Hillsborough Rd between Pine and Main: (8% increase; Walkscore: 65)

1997: 2,500

2013: 2,700

N Greensboro St between Weaver and Main: (22% increase; Walkscore: 91)

1997: 9,000

2013: 11,000

Jones Ferry Rd between Old Fayetteville Rd and NC 54: (4% increase; Walkscore: 42)

1997: 10,600

2013: 11,000

NC 54 between Old Fayetteville Rd and NC 54/West Main St Intersection: (18% increase; Walkscore: 42)

1997: 15,200

2013: 18,000

So what happened?

Carrboro invested in other ways of getting around. According to the recently released DCHC-MPO Mobility Report Card, Carrboro:

  • Increased sidewalk mileage by 24% between 2005 and 2013, adding 7 miles of sidewalk- making it easier to walk around town.
  • Increased bike lane mileage by 24% in the same period, adding 3 miles of bike lanes
  • More than doubled its mileage of multi-use paths to 3.8 miles in total
  • Had buses go fare free in 2002 on Chapel Hill Transit. Many of the places with declines are along major bus corridors in Carrboro on the F, J, and CW routes.

The Mobility Report Card also describes Main Street in Carrboro as one of the region’s leading “Multimodal Corridors” – places with more than 25% of trips that are not drive-alone trips. Trips on Main Street in 2012 were 57% by car, 6% by transit, 27% by walking, and 10% by bike.

When you give people viable choices for travel beyond the car, they use them.

Source data found here:

1997 AADT Counts – Chapel_Hill-Carrboro-1997-aadt

2013 AADT Counts – Chapel_Hill-Carrboro-2013-aadt

Filtering: A Word We Need to Understand as We Discuss Affordable Housing

Protest of Abbey Court Sale to ASM

Protest of Abbey Court Sale to ASM (photo courtesy of www.chapelboro.com)

When new development occurs in Carrboro, many people ask “how many of the new residential units are going to be affordable?”  While this is a good question to ask, the new units in any project are inevitably a small portion of the overall housing stock in the town.

The more important question is “how many of the EXISTING units are becoming more or less affordable?”

New Development = Small Portion of the Housing Supply

The 2012 American Community Survey reported that Carrboro had 9,347 housing units.  A recently approved project on North Greensboro Street, Shelton Station, will add 96 units to the town’s supply of housing, which is barely over 1% of units.  The debate over a single project’s affordability can make it seem like the prices of the other 99% are affordable, or at least have prices that are holding steady.  This is not the case.

Landlords Respond to Rent Conditions and Trends

I’ll let Chris Bradford, the eloquent blogger behind Austin Contrarian, explain this part:

When property values rise, low-quality housing “filters up” to the high-quality housing sub-market.  The reason is that rising rents encourage landlords to invest more in the property.  When property values fall, high-quality housing “filters down” to the low-quality housing sub-market.  The reason is that falling rents encourage landlords to invest less in property.  The key in either case is that old housing costs more to maintain than new housing.

He continues:

Every landlord with an old property confronts the same decision:  Should I spend the money to keep the property in top shape, or should I let it go?

Keeping the property in top shape allows the landlord to charge more rent.  But it also costs the landlord more in maintenance and periodic renovation, especially for old apartments.  What the landlord decides to do depends on the current market, his estimate of future demand, and about a million other things.  But we know one thing for sure:  A landlord is less likely to maintain an apartment in tip-top shape when the rent for tip-top apartments is falling.  Declining rents mean a declining return on the maintenance investment.  That spells less investment .

Without constant maintenance, apartments deteriorate from “tip top” to “slightly dilapidated.”  Renters, sensible people that they are, are not willing to pay as much for bad quality.  Rents fall, and the apartments “filter down” into the pool of affordable housing.

Filtering Moves Units From One Housing Submarket to Another

In another one of Bradford’s posts on filtering, he goes on:

People understand that a tight housing market leads landlords to raise rents. What they often don’t seem to understand is that a tight housing market also causes some landlords to invest more money in their properties in order move them into a more expensive submarket. That’s how a shortage of units in the $1,200/month submarket (for example) can hurt someone shopping in the $800/month submarket.

This is a key point about “filtering up.”  If there’s a demand for higher-end units in a market that is not being met, middle-market landlords who realize this are likely to invest in their properties and re-position them as higher-end units.  This often comes in the form of fresh paint, premium kitchen appliances and countertops, and other modest-cost improvements such as better light fixtures and new carpets.  Once these conversions take place, the landlords will then start charging higher-end market rent for their unit, and simultaneously shorten the supply of mid-market apartments by one unit.

Bradford touches briefly on “filtering down,” and makes a good point:

Filtering down happens too, of course. It’s just that no one sends a press release to the Austin Business Journal when they decide to cut back on maintenance and allow their property to slip in to a cheaper submarket.

What’s The Most Prominent Example of Filtering In Carrboro?

One particular property in town has had a place in the spotlight as it has gone through filtering changes in the last few years: Collins Crossing, formerly known as Abbey Court.  While the story cannot be completely told using news clips, the following quotes suggest that Abbey Court was “filtering down” through neglect from the middle of the past decade to the time of its sale to Aspen Square Management, and the new management firm has been renovating units, repositioning the property as a student-centric location, and “filtering up” to a higher-rent submarket ever since. Units that once rented in the mid-$500 range a few years ago now rent for more than $900 after the renovations.

June 2012: Abbey Court Sold [emphasis added]

While Blau acknowledges that renovations to the condominium complex are desperately needed to bring things up to code – citing buildings that are unsafe and stairways that are falling apart – because a large percentage of the residents who live in the condominium complex are immigrants, she is concerned that renovations could price them out of the complex.

January 2013: Abbey Court child falls through staircase  [emphasis added]

A 10-year-old boy tumbled through a deteriorated stairway at the complex on Nov. 24, three days after Collins Crossing owners notified condo owners of their plan to impose assessment fees.

Carrboro officials gave owners 90 days to make repairs. In the meantime, condo owners have to find the cash within three weeks. It’s unclear what penalty tenants will face if they don’t pay, although Carrboro Mayor Mark Chilton says management could impose a lien on the condos. Some residents fear foreclosure.

March 2014: Glowing reviews about Collins Crossing Landscaping on Yelp: [emphasis added]

I moved in right before school started last fall. The landscaping is great and the renovated apartments are awesome. I have so much room/closet space, other then having a tiny sink, the bathroom is perfect. The staff is always more then accommodating, they are some of the nicest women ever.  The prices are going up but still quite affordable and the best part is that you can have separate leases. I would definitely recommend this place.

Current (Jan 2015) Collins Crossing Website:

The UNC is our fully renovated 2 bedroom 2 bathroom apartment. It is an ideal floor plan for roommates within biking distance to UNC. It also features a full sized stackable washer and dryer.Starting at $979.

Housing Markets Are Dynamic, And Don’t Require New Development to Experience Price Changes in Submarkets

Carrboro has not seen significant new residential construction over the last several years, and Abbey Court/Collins Crossing is a good case study of how real estate market conditions, independent of the presence or absence of new development- drive how properties can become less affordable.

While the change from Abbey Court to Collins Crossing received significant coverage in the media, in part due to the size of the complex, this is not the only part of town that is filtering up.

Next Tuesday’s post will cover another key location where filtering is presently going on in Carrboro.  Have a guess about which part of town it is? Leave it in the comments, and check back on February 24th to see if you got it right.

Lloyd Farm Development: Can We Avoid a Missed Opportunity?

One of the more significant development projects in recent Carrboro history may reach the Board of Aldermen soon- the Lloyd Farm property.  Located across NC 54 from Carrboro Plaza and just west of the Carrboro Post Office, this is one of the largest contiguous areas of mostly undeveloped land left in Carrboro. Here’s the location in question:

On September 11th I attended a meeting on the project at Town Hall.  Late that night, I forwarded some thoughts to the development team. Having not heard back from them, I’m not sure what they thought of those comments, which were mostly about how to make changes to the organization of the buildings on the site that tried to allow for maintaining the overall building program, but organizing it into a more urban pattern, as opposed to a suburban pattern.

The more I think about the site plan that has been proposed, however, the more I think an outcome similar to what the developer is currently proposing is going to be a missed opportunity for Carrboro.

Let me start simply- if this parcel is going to develop (and it is) then it should develop in an urban pattern.  In the plan proposed by the developer, the project is largely organized around a very parking lot.  None of the other buildings have any substantial relationship to each other; instead they have relationships to the car circulation features. This is a suburban layout.

 

Lloyd Farm Site Plan

Lloyd Farm Site Plan

 

The Carr Mill parking lot in front of Harris Teeter and CVS is a good example of what you might get here with the large parking field.

Carr Mill Parking Lot from Greensboro St Side

Carr Mill Parking Lot from Greensboro St Side (click to enlarge)

What would an urban layout look like?  More like one of these locations below.  Forget about building height for right now.  Just look at the relationships of the buildings to each other, and the spaces they create or frame.  I chose these locations because the Lloyd site is about 40 acres.  Where I could ballpark estimate the acreage of the commercial core of these projects, I did.

North Hills, Raleigh – 21-acre core, 850,000+ sq ft. Apartments also.

North Hills, Raleigh

North Hills, Raleigh

North Hills Beach Music Series

North Hills Beach Music Series

American Tobacco Campus, Durham- 22-acre core; 1 million sq feet office space, 10 restaurants, 90,000 sq feet of apartments

American Tobacco Campus

American Tobacco Campus

American Tobacco Musical Event

American Tobacco Musical Event

Birkdale Village, Huntersville, NC – 52 acres; 300,00 sq ft, 320 apts

Birkdale Village, Huntersville

Birkdale Village, Huntersville

Birkdale Village Streetscape

Birkdale Village Streetscape

Birkdale Village Fountain

Birkdale Village Fountain

The Piazza at Schmidt’s, Philadelphia – 8-acres: 500 apts, 50,000 sq feet office space, 80,000 sq foot public space

The Piazza at Schmidt's, Philadelphia

The Piazza at Schmidt’s, Philadelphia

 

Piazza at Schmidt's, Market Day

Piazza at Schmidt’s, Market Day

 

Piazza at Schmidt's - From Above

Piazza at Schmidt’s – From Above

Biltmore Park, Asheville – 42-acres: 276 apts, 270,000 ft class A office, 283,000 sq feet retail.dining/entertainment, 65,00 sq ft YMCA, 165-room hotel

Biltmore Park, Asheville

Biltmore Park, Asheville Layout

Biltmore Park Event

Biltmore Park Event

Biltmore Park Main Street

Biltmore Park Main Street

 

I have additional more detailed thoughts on how we’ve arrived where we are with the Lloyd project, but big picture stuff first: What do you think of these places as inspiration for the Lloyd property?

Carrboro: North Carolina’s Market Town?

Carrboro Farmers' Market

Carrboro Farmers’ Market

Yesterday I talked about Informal Markets — events that are marked by an agreed-upon time and place to sell and buy goods, but may lack features of a permanent retail establishment.  When I think about the things that the town of Carrboro has going for it, our talent for finding room for Informal Markets is near the top of the list.  When I began researching this post, I was not surprised to find that Carrboro has been finding a place for Informal Markets in the community for over 35 years.

Like Krakow, Carrboro has nurtured an informal market into a formal one in the heart of the community- the Carrboro Farmers’ Market. On their website, the Farmers’ Market even refers to itself as a previously informal market!

Prior to 1977, there had been a series of markets in the Chapel Hill area, which were run informally by a group of area farmers. The move to Carrboro began in 1977 with two simultaneous events. First, a project was under development by a graduate student at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Public Health, called the North Carolina Agricultural Marketing Project. The project’s goal was to provide an outlet for local farmers to sell their produce on a regular basis while providing townspeople greater access to high quality fresh produce.

Second, the town of Carrboro was investigating ways to assure that the downtown area remained an active and vibrant part of the community. In an effort to meet this goal, the town successfully sought funding from the NC General Assembly to build a shelter for a farmers’ market. The university project helped the farmers formalize an organizational structure, and the town selected The Chapel Hill-Carrboro Farmers’ Market to run a market under the new shelter on Roberson Street on land leased from Carr Mill Mall.

If interested, you can read the rest of the market’s history here.

The goal of building a shelter for local farmers in the late 1970s and later again in the 1990s was all about giving permanence to an Informal Market, and formalizing it to make it into a community institution rather than an intermittent event.

The Shrimp Man

The Shrimp Man

But a funny thing can happen when you turn an Informal Market into a community institution…you sometimes attract new Informal Markets. If you’ve ever walked on the sidewalk across from Town Hall on a sunny day when the Farmers’ Market is in full swing, you’ve probably seen The Shrimp Man, adding to the diversity of food on sale with fresh fish from the coast.  I’ve purchased both shrimp and scallops from him in the past.

Bike Swap

Bike Swap

Many who have lived here for more than a few years remember the bike shop Cycle 9 which used to be in the half of Looking Glass Cafe that is adjacent to 605 W. Main.  A few years back, on a Saturday morning during Farmers’ Market hours, two blocks to the north of the market, I bought a jogging stroller at an outdoor Bike Swap and sale that Looking Glass and Cycle 9 co-sponsored.

On certain market Saturdays in the summer you can find a man with a trailer selling watermelons in the parking lot of Oddities and Such across from the fire station. Between the end of April and June, it’s not uncommon to see impromptu multi-household yard sales on the corner of the White Oak condominiums property as units turn over with graduation.

In all four of these cases, the sellers are taking advantage of the foot traffic of the now formalized community institution that is the Farmers’ Market, and adding to local commerce for a few hours. Beyond providing a gravitational center for other informal commerce to revolve around on Saturday mornings, the grounds for the Farmers’ Market have also become home to the Really Really Free Market, the (soon to appear) Carrboro Wild Food and Herb market, and the occasional food truck rodeo. (a likely subject for a future post as food trucks represent another kind of informal commerce)

What Carrboro is Getting Right Regarding Informal Markets

In many parts of the world, governments just leave informal markets alone and stay out of their way.  In the United States, it is far more likely that a persistent informal market will be met with investigation or clamp-downs from local governments.  Carrboro has followed a more nuanced approach, first and foremost by simply not freaking out when an Informal Market asserts itself in the community.  The way that food truck operations around town have been absorbed into the rhythm of life without much drama compared to other communities is indicative of Carrboro’s general laissez-faire approach.

Another key has been encouraging non-Farmers’ Market events to take place at the Town Commons, and helping groups get to use the space at low or no cost, even when the groups manage to get in their own way.  The Town seems to correctly intuit that the more the Town Commons gets used, the better — and that zero-revenue-for-the-town events are fine as long as they do not generate significant costs.

I think the final piece the town is getting right is employing a relatively light hand in terms of enforcement of codes about outdoor selling of goods. One night a few years ago, E and I were walking home from downtown and talked with a man sitting in the grassy portion of the town parking lot on the corner of West Weaver/Greensboro. He was selling lizard-themed art priced at $15 to $30 from a tricked-out recumbent bicycle with considerable LED lighting.  The cop parked in the car a few feet away let him be.

Closing Thoughts

Carrboro is pretty left-leaning, and one of the things that comes with that is the occasional “People’s Republic of Carrboro” joke. But on further examination, I think you’ll find that few towns embrace and support local capitalism in quite the same way.  I think a question this poses for local economic development is if we’re good at this, what’s the next step in becoming “North Carolina’s Market Town?” How could we double down on this quality that people seem to enjoy about living here, and use it to provide more opportunities for local merchants to sell goods and to attract visitors to shop here?

My current thinking on this is informed by July 4, 2009 – the day the Farmers’ Market had to take over Main Street because the Town Commons was already filled with attractions for the 4th of July festivities. For that morning, the town used one of its key assets (street space) to create a whole new commercial zone for 3 to 4 hours. I thought it was wonderful. Here’s what it looked like.

In Street Farmers' Market

In Street Farmers’ Market

 

I’ve heard at times in the past that the waiting list to get a spot to sell at the Carrboro Farmers’ Market is quite long.  If that is still true, that’s a good indicator that more merchant space could be filled here on Saturdays.  I think it would be interesting to gauge interest of vendors on that waiting list and others to see if a quarterly “Carrboro Grand Market” that perhaps closed West Weaver Street from Main to Greensboro during the same hours as the Farmers’ Market, and allowed for vendors (food/clothing/art/whatever!) to sell in the street like the farmers did in 2009 — would be worthwhile.