Affordable Housing on Town Land Presents an Opportunity for Carrboro – and a Character Test

Posted on February 24, 2022 by patrick

This blog post is an overview of a community conversation going on in Carrboro, NC, about the town’s plan to build affordable housing on town-owned land.

The Big Picture: Our Housing Challenge

But first: how expensive is it to live in Carrboro? We need to put things in perspective. Before we grapple with this question, watch this 90 second video from the Raleigh News and Observer yesterday with the volume on. Take a listen to Monique Edwards, who is narrating the scene at a showing for a house that is being sold for $260,000 in Raleigh.

Now that we’ve set the scene, here are the median listing prices for homes in our area from realtor.com as of February 23, 2022:

Durham – $360,000
Raleigh – $375,000
Carrboro – $480,000
Chapel Hill – $513,500

Let it sink in- the median home for sale in Carrboro is priced 85% higher than the one in this video.

Carrboro’s Strategy to Build Affordable Housing on Town-Owned Land

Here’s what’s happening: on February 8^th, 2022, the Carrboro Town Council approved a strategy to create affordable housing on Town-owned land. This approval represents the culmination of several years of work, including:

Town Council adopting Affordable Housing Goals and Strategies (June 2014)
Updating those strategy documents (March 2015)
Affirming via the Town Attorney that Carrboro has the authority to provide affordable housing in general, and on town-on land specifically (February 2018)

The most recent step has been for the Town to review land it owns to see which sites are most suitable for building affordable housing. Building affordable homes on publicly owned land is a common strategy for municipalities in North Carolina, which lacks the legislative support for tools like rent control and inclusionary zoning that are available in other states.

The Town reviewed 47 parcels, and narrowed the list down to three sites with the most potential after excluding other sites in the list of 47 that were any of the following categories:

1) Within a conservation easement
2) Inside a Long-Term Interest Areas (WASMPBA)
3) No water or sewer nearby
4) Within 100 year floodplain
5) Within dedicated right-of-way
6) Parcel completely developed
7) Inside Rural Buffer zoning

The Town Council unanimously endorsed this strategy at the meeting on February 8th, and it was reported on by Chapelboro.com on February 16th.

Where are the sites?

106 Hill Street (three homes already being built)
Crest Street
1814-1816 Pathway Drive

Community Response

After the Chapelboro story, email lists around town began receiving invitations to a meeting scheduled by neighbors of the Pathway Drive site on Saturday, February 19th. As someone with a long interest and professional background in these topics, I attended the meeting. About 50 to 75 people gathered in a cul-de-sac near the proposed Pathway Drive site to share their thoughts and concerns about the proposal with each other, and Councilmember Randee Haven O’Donnell took questions.

While I’m not going to spend time detailing lots of comments, I think it is fair to say that the majority of those in attendance were first and foremost trying to learn what is going on. Beyond that, I think it is also fair to say that there were a few individuals who think that affordable housing at the Pathway site represents a significant opportunity for the community, and several more who have concerns.

But while this story may be new to Carrboro, it has all the ingredients of a disheartening local government controversy that we see time and again in communities that vote in very high percentages for Democratic candidates in national elections.

A Local Story In a National Moment

I was going to write a few paragraphs about this, but then I remembered that the New York Times did a fabulous video on this recently. Start at the 4 minute mark, and go to 7:15. This is a better primer than anything I could write.

This topic has also been addressed in Richard Reeves’ book Dream Hoarders, where he takes a look at how anti-development activism locks lower income children out of better school systems, and limits social mobility:

“…homes near good elementary schools are more expensive: about two and a half times as much as those near the poorer-performing schools, according to an analysis by Jonathan Rothwell. But the gap is much wider in metropolitan areas with more restrictive zoning. ‘A change in permitted zoning from the most restrictive to the least restrictive would close at least 50% of the observed gap between the most unequal metropolitan area and the least, in terms of neighborhood inequality,” Rothwell finds. Loosening zoning regulations would reduce the housing cost gap and by extension narrow educational inequalities.”

So…how similar is this conversation we’re having in Carrboro to the national trend?

I don’t need to review how Carrboro votes in national election. And I think everyone is aware we have one of the top-rated school systems in North Carolina, and that McDougle Elementary and Middle schools are well regarded. But let’s look at Census data. We have two sites up for discussion since the third one is already being built upon.

Here is a map of the Crest Street and Pathway Drive sites, overlaid on median income by census tract from the American Community Survey (ACS):

The Pathway site is in one of the highest income neighborhoods in Carrboro, with a median income over $130,000, which is approaching double the Orange County median household income of around $71,000.

And also percent white by census tract from the ACS tables on race and ethnicity:

The Pathway site is in a census tract that is 81% white, whereas Carrboro as a whole is 62% white. (2020 Census)

On my way home that evening, I counted seven Black Lives Matter yard signs on the way back to North Greensboro Street. It was also hard to miss this larger banner one block from where the meeting was held.So yes, while every college town development tussle has its own nuances, this is a conversation that could very easily end in dispiriting outcomes like Boulder residents opposing affordable housing to protect firefly habitats and limit “pet density.”

Can We Have A Better Conversation In Carrboro?

I sure hope so. With that in mind, I’ve got some suggestions for everybody.

Suggestions for the Town

For the town staff:

1. The clearest take-away from the meeting I attended near the Pathway site is that the process that got from 47 sites to 3 sites is a mystery to everyone. I don’t think the Town intended it to be that way, but I spent some time looking around the town website and digging through 2018 meeting minutes and I couldn’t find what I think a lot of people would like to see – a spreadsheet that lists all of the sites, which criteria they met and failed to meet, and so forth. I think it’s imperative to share that data with the community.

2. Future discussion of these projects needs to have some basic educational content about what is and what isn’t possible with affordable housing in North Carolina and Carrboro. Rent control? Illegal. Requiring affordable units in new development? Not allowed under standard zoning in NC. Can we negotiate with a for-profit developer? Yes, but density bonuses are tricky and when Durham offered 3 bonus market rate units for every 1 affordable unit supplied a few years back, not one developer took them up on it. These are some of the reasons why non-profit developers building on public-owned land are often how affordable housing gets delivered these days.

I’m a professional urban planner and these things are not common knowledge even in our circles. The public shouldn’t be expected to navigate the what-ifs without more background on why other things may not be possible. Please help the community understand why certain things are and are not on the table.

3. Share more information about how our Stormwater Utility (and the money it collects) are designed to help with addressing flooding issues. It’s clear there are legitimate flooding concerns already being dealt with by neighbors, and talking about how the town can address those on a parallel path to any new home construction will be valuable.

Suggestions for Those With Good Faith Concerns About the Pathway Project

4. Most importantly – go look at some multifamily home communities nearby. There are many that are quite beautiful and sought-after places to live. Take pictures of things you don’t like to share with town staff, but crucially, also take pictures of things you DO LIKE so that if something does get built, it is as informed by your goals as much as possible.

There are lots of ways to put 24 to 36 units on a small number of acres, and a sloping landline can sometimes help. Stacked townhomes with a one-floor condo on top of a two-story townhouse (or vice versa) create a three-story building type that makes it easier to build cost-efficiently while preserving more trees.

We have some interesting examples around here – the best may be Village West off of Estes Drive:

The two cohousing communities of Arcadia and Pacifica also offer some interesting, compact building techniques. I like how little land the parking at Pacifica takes up. That said, both of those communities were designed with solar access in mind, so they have very few trees amid the homes, with significant trees at the edge of their buildings. I wonder if some mix of the parking approach at Pacifica and the building type from Village West could meet the town’s goals while leaving more land undisturbed, which seems to be a goal of several neighbors.

5. Accept that while this may have felt like surprising news, the Town did not get to this point casually or without careful consideration. I hope the Town does share their list of 47 town-owned sites and the attributes of those that didn’t make the cut. But be prepared to find out that even after the data is released, that the Pathway site is still probably the best site that the town controls to build the most affordable housing at one time.

Suggestions for the Media

In this conversation, there will be misinformation brought up, and it can’t be put on an equal plane with real technical expertise. I’ve seen reporting in one local outlet that sounds too frequently like this: “The professional stormwater engineer certified that the design can detain all the runoff from a 125-year storm using its cistern and best management practices, but a person with a strongly held opinion said that it will flood just like all the other stuff in the neighborhood [that was built before modern stormwater rules] does.”

6. Don’t do this. If you believe that reporting on an assertion that isn’t supported by technical expertise is crucial to a story, use a truth sandwich when sharing it.

Suggestions for Affordable Housing Advocates

In every local government controversy, our elected officials are besieged with emails about what people are mad about, afraid of, and against, and they rarely get emails about what people are excited about, hopeful for, or supportive of.

7. If you think building affordable housing is important, don’t just watch this process, write in and tell the town council. You can write to council@townofcarrboro.org.

Suggestion For The Town Council: Help Us Pass This Character Test

Sometimes it’s easy to tell what the right thing to do is, and hard to follow through on it. Our town’s draft comprehensive plan is built on pillars of Racial Equity and Climate Action. How do those fare if we miss this opportunity? Well, if lower-income families who were going to live at the Pathway Drive site wind up living somewhere else, it’s probably most likely somewhere with lower housing costs outside of Chapel Hill/Carrboro, and Orange County. The medical staff who check people in at my doctor’s office in Carrboro drive in from Roxboro and Siler City, respectively. The emissions of commute trips that long are a climate issue. I’m sure they’d live closer if they could afford it. From a racial equity point of view, researchers have documented how much the zipcode you grow up in can influence your life trajectory. So many of us live here because we believe this is true in Carrboro for our children. Being generous with that opportunity in 27510 is one of the best contributions we can make to racial equity.

In closing, at the community meeting last Saturday, I was heartened to hear Council member Randee Haven O’Donnell say that we absolutely must avoid pitting affordable housing and environmental goals against each other, and that this project is an opportunity to build a new model for how a community can come together to build affordable housing, and share all that we love about Carrboro with others.

May it be so. I believe this Town Council can lead us there.

Chapel Hill Transit Proposes New System Maps – Scenario 3 Is The Best

Posted on January 26, 2018 by patrick

The bottom line: in the past week or so, Chapel Hill Transit has released three potential service scenarios that could inform the transit service we have in the fall of 2019. Scenario 3 is a major, positive game-changer. The new service concept in Scenario 3 will make it easier for people to use transit for types of trips in Chapel Hill and Carrboro that were not previously possible, while also giving lots of people access to jobs 7 days/week instead of only 5 days/week. This can drive ridership, making positive impacts for equity and helping to slow or mitigate climate change.

But first, here’s the most important map made by the consultant, Nelson Nygaard: CHT Ridership by Stop

This map shows ridership by the size of the circle at each bus stop. Bigger circles = more riders.Within the massive pile of circles on campus, the U, RU, and other campus routes do a lot of business because it is so hard to park at UNC. Whenever you wonder why the consultant might have recommended something, return to this map.

Below is a map of Scenario 3.

Scenario 3

Scenario 3 Notes:

This is the “Start from Scratch” map where the consults tried to be maximally responsive to where ridership activity is. These routes look quite different from what we have today, and there are some strange bends in the routes here and there. But look closely- you’ll see that the six core routes: EW, J, T, NS, V, and U -do something really compelling. You can make direct transfers from each route to each of the other routes somewhere in one of the two towns or on campus!

CHT As a One-Connection Network

That means you can make ALMOST any trip on these routes with only one transfer. Let’s watch how this works in practice:

Live Along the V? Catch the T at Glen Lennox, J, NS, T & U on South Columbia St. Connect to EW at Franklin/Columbia corner, of catch EW again at Carrboro Plaza.
Live Along the T? Catch the NS on MLK Blvd or downtown, Catch the EW downtown or near Rams Plaza, catch the V in Northside or at Glen Lennox, catch the U or J on South Columbia St.

The Washington Metrorail system is designed like this. While there are sometimes ways to make trips faster with 2 connections, you can get from pretty much any station on any Metrorail line to any other with one connection if that’s what you prefer.

The EW Route is the Most Needed Route We Are Missing Today

We have had a solid North-South route in Chapel Hill for a long time, the NS. What we’ve been dealing with in pieces across the F, J, CW, D, CL, are all the major East-West movements in town. The EW route is a true game-changer. As the parent of elementary schooler, a bus like EW running from 6:30 AM to 11:30 PM is going to provide great freedom to DC as he gets older. Using ONE bus you could go to the following places on the EW:

University Lake
Carrboro Plaza
Johnny’s
Carrboro Farmers Market
PTA Thrift Shop
Downtown Carrboro
ArtsCenter
Downtown Chapel Hill
Caffe Driade
Bolin Creek Greenway (bike on bus!)
University Place
Rams Plaza
New Hope Commons
Patterson Place

That’s a lot of freedom! And a lot of places to work. With connections to NS, V, and T, pretty much every commercial center in Chapel Hill and Carrboro is within reach.

Is There Anything I Would Change About Scenario 3?

I have one major quibble with this otherwise really exciting concept- the J route. It has not been adjusted. And what this means is that we continue to have a situation where we have a high density, lower-car ownership area south of town near Carrboro High School and Rock Creek Apartments- that cannot take a bus easily to downtown Carrboro or Chapel Hill for work. The J brings residents from that neighborhood to the bottom of South Greensboro Street, less than 1 minute by bus from downtown…and takes them on long trip on NC 54 through campus before reaching Franklin St and Main St.

It seems like the primary roadblock to doing something like this is making sure CHT can continue to serve the significant ridership east of Greensboro St and west of South Columbia along NC 54. I see two ways to address this.

Turn the JFX into a non-express route to provide additional service to those apartment complexes on weekdays, and move the J off of this stretch of NC 54, sending it north from Rock Creek to downtown Carrboro and then Chapel Hill instead. This helps those apartments during weekday peak hours, but would leave them with no weekend or evening service.
If it is important to provide those apartments all-day service, and it seems to be, what about modifying the J to run like this?

Modified J Route- No Crazier than the Current Version!

Here’s how the modified J would work.

Bus 1 departs Rock Creek Apts following the Green pattern, proceeding first to downtown Carrboro, then turning RIGHT towards Chapel Hill. When it reaches South Columbia Street by the Skipper Bowles building it follows the purple line south to Fordham Blvd /15-501 and then takes that path back to Rock Creek Apts.

Bus 2 departs Rock Creek Apts following the Purple pattern, proceeding first to downtown Carrboro, then turning LEFT towards Collins Crossing/Davie Rd. When it reaches Frat Court by the Ackland Art Museum, it picks up the Green line north to Franklin St, then west to downtown Carrboro and back to Rock Creek Apts via South Greensboro St.

What are the benefits of this change?

Every part of the J route now has bi-directional service. No more one-way loop on Jones Ferry Rd, NC 54, and South Greensboro. That’s good! Jarrett Walker, author of Human Transit, has laid down the definitive explanation of why one-way loops are not good for transit here.
People boarding the J who previously could go straight to Chapel Hill along Main/Franklin will need to transfer to the EW at the Club Nova bus stop between to make the same trip. But the EW is pretty frequent at every 15 minutes. If CHT schedules the eastbound modified J buses from Collins Crossing to South Greensboro St to pass Club Nova 5 minutes ahead of the EW in the morning, and 5 minutes later westbound in the evening, this will work out smoothly for passengers. Also- now that the J runs along 54 without getting off, riding the OPPOSITE direction from Collins Crossing/Davie Rd probably gets them to south campus FASTER, even if they make stops along NC 54. There’s also the GoTriangle 405 at the same stop.
People who used to ride from Rock Creek to campus via NC 54 have had their trips lengthened a bit, but now they have access to both downtowns for work or social opportunities that they can connect to before or after going to campus or on weekends. If they accidentally catch the bus that is going towards Collins Crossing once it reaches downtown Carrboro, they just hop off and catch the EW, or stay on the J and enjoy the ride.
Businesses in downtown Carrboro and Chapel Hill who face parking challenges for workers and customers should benefit from this move. It makes the J work as well for the two downtowns as it does for the UNC campus.

Overall, moving to something like Scenario 3 is going to be a significant change in how people use the system. It’s impossible to make these types of changes without some folks losing the service they have today, but we also have to think about how the service improvements in this scenario could potentially make the service useful for more people than currently find the service useful today. I chose to live where I live today in part because it was a certain number of feet from a CW bus stop. Scenario 3 takes that stop away from me, and makes me walk farther to catch a bus in the first place. But the type of service I can walk to will be DRASTICALLY more useful, and I want that kind of service because my family will ride it much more often. I’m betting others will too.

#TeamScenario3

Okay, that’s my take. What’s yours? Leave a comment!

And more importantly, head over to the Chapel Hill Transit Survey and leave your suggestions there!

Carrboro Now Has Express Bus Service to Durham! Here’s How to Use It

Posted on August 9, 2016 by patrick

Route 405 Arrives In Carrboro (Photo Courtesy of Alicia Stemper Photography)

Monday, August 8th was an exciting day- for the first time ever, we now have direct regional bus service to and from Downtown Carrboro! GoTriangle Route 405, which currently runs between Chapel Hill and Durham, will be extended into Carrboro and will provide service during rush hour between Carrboro and Durham. A big crowd was on hand Monday morning to greet the new buses. Here are the key things to know about the new Route 405:

There will be seven departures from Carrboro to Durham every morning, with the earliest at 5:45 AM and the latest one at 8:41 AM. There will be seven return trips in the evening with departures from Durham to Carrboro between 3:30 pm and 6:30 pm.
GoTriangle buses will make two stops in Carrboro: one at Collins Crossing/Abbey Ct, and the other at the Weaver St Realty/Jade Palace pair of bus stops downtown.
Route 405 will provide a direct, one-seat ride to the Duke West campus and Duke Hospital area along Erwin Rd, the American Tobacco Campus, and to downtown Durham.
The regular cash fare for the bus is $2.25 for a one-way trip. Discounted multi-ride tickets are available, and employees at Duke, American Tobacco (read far down page), and other major employers are eligible for a prepaid GoPass from their employer.

The Schedule as of August 2016:

Carrboro to Durham (morning)

Durham to Carrboro (afternoon)

Things Carrboro Residents Can Do With Route 405, Part I – Catch the Early Amtrak Train to Charlotte

Prior to Route 405’s extension, the only way to get to Durham by transit in the morning from Carrboro was riding Chapel Hill Transit and then catching Route 405 into Durham. However, the morning train to Charlotte (Piedmont #73) leaves Durham at 7:19 am, and the F, J, and CW routes all don’t start early enough to connect with the 405 in Chapel Hill to make the connection. With 405 beginning in Carrboro, there are now TWO departures from the Jones Ferry/Collins Crossing stop at 5:45 and 6:15 am which both will get you to Durham Station in time to catch the early train. The same two trips also pick up in Downtown Carrboro at Weaver St Realty at 5:48 and 6:18 am, respectively.

Things Carrboro Residents Can Do With Route 405, Part II – Grab Breakfast in Downtown Carrboro and Ride To Duke/Durham With Ease

A trip I have tried to make many times in the past but was too challenging goes like this: I would be headed to Downtown Durham for work, and thus need to transfer from a Chapel Hill Transit bus from my neighborhood in Carrboro to GoTriangle. SInce this switch needed to occur in downtown Chapel Hill, if I wanted to grab breakfast at Weaver St, Neal’s, or anywhere else downtown- I would need to catch three buses to make it work:

Bus 1: Neighborhood to Downtown Carrboro
Bus 2: CHT bus from Downtown Carrboro to Downtown Chapel Hill
Bus 3: GoTriangle bus to Durham

The CHT buses that you can take to make the second trip (CW, J, and F) sometimes have big enough gaps between them between 7 and 8 am that with the old schedules/routes, you’d be rolling the dice that you’ll miss your connection and be late to work in Durham. Route 405 stopping in Carrboro solves this dilemma neatly by eliminating that middle bus trip.

Imagine you live up North Greensboro St near the intersection with Hillsborough Rd, and work at the American Tobacco Campus. The F route leaves N Greensboro at Morningside Drive at 7:38 am and reaches the Century Center stop (across the street from WSM) at 7:42 am. You can take the F bus, and have 30 minutes to get coffee or breakfast on the WSM lawn and then stroll over to the Weaver St Realty stop at 8:10 or so. At 8:14, GoTriangle 405 comes by and reaches Durham Station at 8:55 am, and you walk right into American Tobacco by 9:00 am.

Prefer breakfast in downtown Chapel Hill? Don’t worry, that still works too. Just keep riding any CHT route to Franklin St, get food there, and board 405 at the Carolina Coffee Shop Stop.

Things Carrboro Residents Can Do With Route 405, Part III – Get a Beer With Friends After Work in Downtown Durham

With departures on the half hour from 5:00 pm to 6:30 pm, if you work in Downtown Durham, it’s easy to stop by the lawn at Bull McCabe’s, West End Wine bar, or even Bull City Burger or the Pinhook as long as you plan your walking time well. What if everyone wants to go to Fullsteam? No problem. You can catch GoDurham Route 4 right by Fullsteam & MotorCo at 6:17 pm, which will bring you to Durham Station with 5 minutes to spare to switch to GoTriangle 405. You’ll be back at Jade Palace in downtown Carrboro by 7:13 pm.

What About Getting To/From Carrboro By Regional Bus Outside of Rush Hour?

While Route 405 now provides direct access to Carrboro during morning and evening rush hour, you can still travel between Carrboro and Durham during the midday and evening by transferring between Chapel Hill Transit Routes J, CW, F, CPX, or CM- and GoTriangle Route 400. Route 400 covers all of the same stops as Route 405, but makes a few extra stops in Durham near the Patterson Place shopping center. Route 400 was also upgraded this week as midday service went from once an hour to once every 30 minutes. After 7:00 pm, Route 400 runs hourly until the last departure leaves Durham Station at 10:00 pm, getting to the Varsity Theater in Chapel Hill at 10:33 pm.

Route 400 runs every half hour on Saturdays between 7:00 am and 6:00 pm and once every hour on Sundays. Additional Hourly service is provided Saturday evenings between 6:00 and 10:00 pm. View the Route 400 Schedule here.

Biking to Route 405, and Bringing Bikes On Route 405

Bike Rack on GoTriangle Bus

Like all GoTriangle buses, the Route 405 vehicles have a bike rack that can hold two bikes on the front of each bus. If you’ve never tried to use a bike rack on a bus before, I recommend viewing this 2-minute video from AC Transit in California. The rack they use is exactly the same style as the ones found on GoTriangle and Chapel Hill Transit buses, and the camera angles are really good at showing how it works.

If you find that the bus you want to ride already has two bikes in the rack, and you can’t wait for the next bus, it’s best to lock up your bike and pick it up later in the day. There are lots of convenient bike parking locations in downtown Carrboro- zoom in on the intersection of E Main St and E Weaver St in the map below for bike parking convenient to the Weaver St Realty Bus Stop.

Real-Time Information

Another tool you can use to make using Route 405 and Chapel Hill Transit even easier to use is the real-time bus locator app made by Transloc, which works on IPhone and Android phones, and can track all seven transit systems in the Triangle.

To learn more about Transloc, check out this video:

Good Luck!

Happy riding! That’s all the tips and pointers I have for now. Have questions about some aspect of the service I didn’t cover? Tried planning a trip and aren’t entirely sure that you have the best trip for you? Add a comment below or drop me an email; I’ll see what I can do to help.

GoTriangle Proposes Carrboro-Durham Bus Service, Additional Fast Trips from Chapel Hill

Posted on April 23, 2016 by patrick

Carrboro residents who work at Duke or in Downtown Durham may soon have a new transportation choice: direct regional bus service on GoTriangle Route 405. Chapel Hill residents who work in the same places could see more fast trips this fall as well if GoTriangle implements the service proposal that is now out for public comment.

What Regional Bus Service Is Available Today Between Chapel Hill and Durham?

Currently, there are two regional bus routes operated by GoTriangle that link the Carolina Coffee Shop/Varsity Theater in Chapel Hill to Duke Hospital and Durham Station in Durham:

Route 405, which is faster and runs during peak hours only, departures every 30 minutes
Route 400, which covers more territory and takes 15 minutes longer than 405 to make the same trip, departures every 30 minutes

In the middle of the day, only Route 400 runs and the buses come once every 60 minutes. But there’s another quirk to the existing service- since the 400 takes an extra 15 minutes to make its trip, often times the 400 and 405 leave Chapel Hill at the exact same time, which means while there are 4 buses departing per hour, travelers only have two departure choices for the fast bus (405) since they often leave the Carolina Coffee Shop stop at the same time as the slower bus 400.

The New 405/400 Proposal: More Fast Buses Throughout the Day

There are several things to like about the proposal on the table for August of 2016:

The proposal shortens Route 400 by ten minutes (10 minutes!) by removing service from portions of Old Chapel Hill and Southwest Durham Drive. This makes Durham and Chapel Hill closer by bus, all day long.
The adjustment above allows buses to depart on more regular intervals (roughly 15 minutes) from downtown Chapel Hill, providing four departure choices every morning and afternoon during rush hour instead of two departure choices.
Service is extended into Carrboro, allowing for direct access to Durham from the Abbey Court/Collins Crossings stop, as well as downtown Carrboro. Durham residents who work in Carrboro can ride it to work, too.
Service in the middle of the day, AND on Saturday on Route 400 will now run every 30 minutes instead of every 60 minutes

Here is a map of the new service concept:

Proposed Carrboro-Durham Bus Service

GoTriangle Now Accepting Public Comments

GoTriangle is accepting public comments on this proposal until April 28, 2016.

To find out additional details about the proposal and to share your opinion, please visit GoTriangle’s Service Change Survey for Route 400/405 here.

Carrboro has had one of the highest percentages of residents using public transportation in North Carolina and the southeast for many years. I expect this service to be well-used by many residents and workers alike. If having this service come to Carrboro is important to you, please take the time to share your comments at the link just above.

Filtering, Housing Supply and Changes In Rents: The Evidence

Posted on March 5, 2015 by patrick

Over the past two weeks, I have highlighted how housing prices and rents increase without new development- through filtering at large multifamily properties and at smaller rentals as individual landlords decide to upgrade their units one at a time. The flip side of this phenomenon is the question: Is there is evidence that expanding the supply of housing can put downward pressure on rents, and can prevent mid-market housing from filtering up to become higher-end rental property?

The answer is an overwhelming YES. But don’t take my word for it, just read a whole bunch of newspaper articles with data below. None of them use the word “filtering” explicitly, but virtually all of them reference filtering in housing markets in one way or another. I’ll make some brief comments after a few articles.

Austin, TX – 2/2/2015 (Austin American-Statesman)

The boom in apartment supply dropped the area’s occupancy rate to 94 percent in the last half of 2014 — the lowest occupancy level in more than three years, and nearly 4 percent below the recent high of 97.8 percent in June 2012…With all those new units entering the market, supply is catching up to demand. And that means apartment rents are stabilizing after rising rapidly — sometimes as much as 7 percent per year — from 2010 through 2013. The average rent in the metro area was $1,107 a month in December — an all-time high, but an increase of only $8 from the average rent for June, Heimsath said.

Comments: This article notes how the expansion of supply in Austin has increased vacancies, which is another way of saying there are more multifamily properties with idle income-producing units each month, who are now more likely to make deals on rent. Here the supply of new units has cut rent increases from 7% to 0.7%- or $8/month on a unit that rents for $1,107.

Washington, DC – 1/4/2015 (Washington Post)

This new supply forced landlords at some four- and five-star buildings to reduce rents in order to fill their units. As a result, rent growth dipped into the red briefly in 2008, and then again for most of 2009. The Great Recession also had an impact, as some former four- and five-star renters moved to older, cheaper three-star buildings to save money. This increased demand for three-star units, allowing landlords there to continue raising prices.

In recent years, the effective rental growth rates of three-star and four- and five-star buildings have diverged even further. Just as in 2007, this is largely a result of the recent construction boom in the Washington area. An unprecedented number of new apartment units (about 24,000) have arrived in the area in the past two years, increasing the total apartment inventory by roughly 5 percent.

That new supply wave cut rents for four- and five-star apartments even further, even as rents at three-start apartments continued to outperform. But the narrowing may be slowing as the wave of supply takes its toll on three-star rents as well, working in renters’ favor.

Comments: This article identifies some of the submarkets in DC, separating out 3-star properties from 4-star and 5-star properties, and describes how the influx of new high-end units has had rents falling since 2013. (see chart) Also of interest are the descriptions of people moving from one submarket to another because of the Great Recession.

Closer to home, a piece on the Triangle Apartment Market as a whole – 11/19/2014

A total of 7,965 new apartment units have been completed in the Triangle over the 12-month period ending in September, according to MPF Research, which analyzes apartment data in 100 U.S. metro markets. That is easily the largest amount of new supply added over a 12-month period in the 20 years that MPF has been tracking the Triangle.

According to MPF, demand for new units over that same period totaled 6,940 – a hefty number but still below supply.

The new supply has helped slow rent growth in the Triangle. Rents were up 1.7 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period a year ago. That was well below the 3.7 percent average increase across the United States.

Comments: Pretty self-explanatory. More units coming online slowed rent increases compared with national averages.

More local data, in Durham – 2/14/14

The boom in apartment construction in Durham County and across the Triangle has helped to bring down average rental rates, according to a recently released report from the Charlotte-based market research firm Real Data.
However, a real estate company behind one of the new apartment complexes in downtown Durham expects to be able to buck that trend due to the location and type of product it’s offering.
Across Durham County, the average rental price per unit in January was $887. That was down 2.3 percent compared with the average in July of last year. That’s a larger decline than was seen in the three Triangle counties of Wake, Durham and Orange, where the average was down 1.7 percent to an average rate of $868 per month.
Vacancies have risen as some of the units in the new complexes have come online, the firm reported. Real Data had a total of number of 3,045 units under construction in Durham County, which is 30 percent of the number of units – at 10,028 – under construction across the Triangle.
Although averages are coming down, according to the firm’s reporting, it appears that the newer units are being rented out at the expense of older communities. Existing communities saw a net loss of 306 renters across the Triangle, according to Real Data, while there was a positive net unit absorption of 1,436 units.

Comments: The last sentence (emphasis added is mine) is a perfect description of filtering with new units attracting high-end submarket renters to the newest, latest/greatest housing. This raised vacancies at existing multifamily properties,and rents fell 2.3 percent across the market, making housing more affordable.

And in Chapel Hill on Rosemary Street – 3/31/2014

Students stood in line with keys outside of the LUX apartments leasing office on Franklin Street Thursday hoping to open a treasure chest that would give them free rent for a year. At one point they were approached by two people handing out treats with advertisements for The Warehouse on them.

“I incorrectly thought it was LUX employees trying to pacify people who were waiting in line, but I was wrong,” UNC student Lauren Sutton said. “I got my rice krispie treat and flipped it over and there was a sticker on it saying, ‘Warehouse apartments: Now Leasing,’ and their prices for rent.”

The Warehouse did not return requests for comment.

But the complex did lower its monthly rent for four-bedroom apartments to $618 for next year, down 21 percent from $785 this year, according to the complex’s website.

Comments: Classic response to visceral competition from brand-new amenity rich building directly across the street- move your rents to a new, lower-rent submarket to compete!

You see that there are all kinds of affordable cities in the United States. There are plenty of low-demand cities, especially in the midwest, where the housing stock has grown slowly and prices are low. But there are also plenty of cheap, fast-growing cities in the sunbelt where the housing stock is growing rapidly and keeping things affordable.

And then there are the expensive cities. The places where house-sellers are asking for over $200 per square foot. All of them are cities where the housing stock is growing slowly, even though these are the places where it would be most profitable to build. That’s because these cities tend to have geographical constraints that prevent further sprawl, and have adopted zoning codes that make it difficult to add more housing by building more densely.

Here’s the chart, courtesy of Trulia.com:

As I was working on this post over the last few days, I was trying to put together a good summary paragraph when an excellent blogger in Chicago, Daniel Kay Hertz, took up the same topic and posted this excellent conclusion for affordability:

But the bottom line is that slow, zero, or negative cost-of-housing growth is better than fast cost-of-housing growth. (At least, that is, in high-cost neighborhoods/metropolitan areas.) The vast majority of low- and moderate-income people live, and will continue for the foreseeable future to live, in non-subsidized housing. Even in New York, which has held on to its public housing better than most other large expensive cities, it only makes up something like 7% of all units. That means that it’s exactly these kinds of market trends – consistently large rent hikes, year after year, in mid-ish market housing – that makes a neighborhood, or city, or metropolitan area, eventually unaffordable to working- and middle-class people.

And it turns out that construction booms arrest that sort of pattern, or prevent its continuation, all the time.

Lloyd Farm Development: Can We Avoid a Missed Opportunity?

Posted on December 1, 2014 by patrick

One of the more significant development projects in recent Carrboro history may reach the Board of Aldermen soon- the Lloyd Farm property. Located across NC 54 from Carrboro Plaza and just west of the Carrboro Post Office, this is one of the largest contiguous areas of mostly undeveloped land left in Carrboro. Here’s the location in question:

On September 11th I attended a meeting on the project at Town Hall. Late that night, I forwarded some thoughts to the development team. Having not heard back from them, I’m not sure what they thought of those comments, which were mostly about how to make changes to the organization of the buildings on the site that tried to allow for maintaining the overall building program, but organizing it into a more urban pattern, as opposed to a suburban pattern.

The more I think about the site plan that has been proposed, however, the more I think an outcome similar to what the developer is currently proposing is going to be a missed opportunity for Carrboro.

Let me start simply- if this parcel is going to develop (and it is) then it should develop in an urban pattern. In the plan proposed by the developer, the project is largely organized around a very parking lot. None of the other buildings have any substantial relationship to each other; instead they have relationships to the car circulation features. This is a suburban layout.

Lloyd Farm Site Plan

The Carr Mill parking lot in front of Harris Teeter and CVS is a good example of what you might get here with the large parking field.

Carr Mill Parking Lot from Greensboro St Side (click to enlarge)

What would an urban layout look like? More like one of these locations below. Forget about building height for right now. Just look at the relationships of the buildings to each other, and the spaces they create or frame. I chose these locations because the Lloyd site is about 40 acres. Where I could ballpark estimate the acreage of the commercial core of these projects, I did.

North Hills, Raleigh – 21-acre core, 850,000+ sq ft. Apartments also.

North Hills, Raleigh

North Hills Beach Music Series

American Tobacco Campus, Durham- 22-acre core; 1 million sq feet office space, 10 restaurants, 90,000 sq feet of apartments

American Tobacco Campus

American Tobacco Musical Event

Birkdale Village, Huntersville, NC – 52 acres; 300,00 sq ft, 320 apts

Birkdale Village, Huntersville

Birkdale Village Streetscape

Birkdale Village Fountain

The Piazza at Schmidt’s, Philadelphia – 8-acres: 500 apts, 50,000 sq feet office space, 80,000 sq foot public space

The Piazza at Schmidt’s, Philadelphia

Piazza at Schmidt’s, Market Day

Piazza at Schmidt’s – From Above

Biltmore Park, Asheville – 42-acres: 276 apts, 270,000 ft class A office, 283,000 sq feet retail.dining/entertainment, 65,00 sq ft YMCA, 165-room hotel

Biltmore Park, Asheville Layout

Biltmore Park Event

Biltmore Park Main Street

I have additional more detailed thoughts on how we’ve arrived where we are with the Lloyd project, but big picture stuff first: What do you think of these places as inspiration for the Lloyd property?

Transit Tourism Opportunity on Sunday 9/28: Carrboro Music Festival!

Posted on September 26, 2014 by patrick

Carrboro Music Festival

Well, it’s decorative gourd season, friends, and the weather looks perfect this weekend, AND the Carrboro Music Festival is Sunday. I expect to be over there by foot/bike/wagon or some combination thereof, but for Durhamites who feel like Carrboro is a long drive to hang out with 10,000 other music lovers taking in 180 local bands for free, then good news! For the first time ever, you can take Triangle Transit to get you to the festival, as long as you’re willing to do a little walking.

Route 400 leaves Durham Station every hour from 7:00 am to 6:00 pm on Sundays now, and drops you off on Franklin St in Chapel Hill at the Varsity Theater. Just walk due west down Franklin along maybe the nicest stretch of city street in NC, and you’ll arrive in the middle of all the music in about 15 minutes or so.

Buses head back to Durham from the Carolina Coffee Shop (directly across from the Varsity, where you got off) a little after the hour, with the final bus leaving at 6:12 pm.

Here’s a link to the Route 400 bus schedule. Download the Transloc App (Iphone or Android) to track buses in real time and locate stops.

Music starts at 1:00 p.m. so you can easily catch 4-4.5 hours of music before needing to walk back to Chapel Hill to bus it home. Have a great weekend!

Visiting Carrboro and Chapel Hill Without a Car Just Got A Lot Easier

Posted on September 8, 2014 by patrick

New regional bus service on weekends from Triangle Transit is making intercity and interstate travel to and from Chapel Hill/Carrboro without a car easier than it has ever been.

If you try to visit the Research Triangle region of North Carolina without driving your own car here, you will generally arrive by one of three methods:

By Plane – To RDU Airport, which is in between Raleigh and Durham, just north of the town of Morrisville
By Bus – To Durham Station in downtown Durham via Megabus; or to the Raleigh Greyhound station on Capital Blvd
By Train – To the Raleigh, Cary or Durham Amtrak Stations

None of these arrival points are in Chapel Hill or Carrboro, which means if you want to get to our neck of the woods, you need to then either use Triangle Transit’s regional bus service, rent a car, or take an expensive cab/UberX ride.

Before August 2014, Triangle Transit had offered service that stopped serving Chapel Hill around 6:45 pm on Saturdays, and there was no Sunday service at all.

Triangle Transit Expands Weekend Service August 2014

But as of August 18th, 2014 – these gaps in the regional bus schedule have been filled in!

Regional Saturday service now runs as late as the weekday service on routes 400 and 800, and Sunday service runs from 7 am to 7 pm. What this means is that trips that were either impossible or forced a car rental for a weekend visit, can now, in most cases- be accomplished using Triangle Transit regional services, local buses, and walking in the urban core of Chapel Hill and Carrboro. This will give travelers more options, and save them money.

Here’s a quick rundown of your options.

Downtown Durham and Bus 400 or 405 = best Ground Transport Access to Chapel Hill / Carrboro

Piedmont Arrives at Durham Amtrak Station

Arriving by Amtrak in Durham, every train arrival of the entire week except for the last train from Charlotte (#76) on Sunday nights – allows for a successful connection on to Chapel Hill via Triangle Transit bus 400 or 405. Unfortunately, the earliest southbound train out of Durham leaves before the first bus from Chapel Hill each morning reaches Durham. Hopefully this connection will be added in the future.

However, the rest of the daily outbound train schedule in Durham is well served. Amtrak has direct connections from Durham to everywhere Amtrak’s Carolinian and Piedmont travel, including Charlotte, Greensboro, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC.

Also arriving in Durham, directly across Chapel Hill Street from the Amtrak Station at the corner of Willard and Chapel Hill, is the one stop for Megabus in the Triangle. Megabus has direct service from Durham to Charlotte, Fayetteville, Richmond, and Washington, DC.

To get from either the Amtrak station or Megabus stop to Chapel Hill / Carrboro, walk to the bus center and connect via routes 400 and 405. 400 runs all day long, and 405, which is slightly faster, runs on the weekdays during rush hour. You can find schedules for bus 400 and 405 here.

To be sure, you could also reach the Triangle by train in Raleigh or Cary, and by Greyhound bus in Raleigh as well. That said, if you’re trying to get to Chapel Hill or Carrboro, your connection will be shorter and more convenient from Durham. The only time this might not be true is if you arrive at the Raleigh Amtrak station by one of the trains that do not stop at Durham, such as the Silver Star, Silver Meteor, and the Palmetto. If this is how you reach the Triangle, use the Trip Planner at www.gotriangle.org for the best way to continue on to Chapel Hill / Carrboro on Triangle Transit.

RDU Airport, Bus 100 and Connect to Bus 800 = best Air Transport Access to Chapel Hill / Carrboro

If you fly into RDU Airport, the bus that will pick you up, no matter whether you land at Terminal 1 or Terminal 2, is Triangle Transit bus 100. Note that this bus follows the same traffic pattern through the airport whether it is going to Raleigh or to the Regional Transit Center (RTC). When 100 arrives, assuming you’re headed for Chapel Hill or Carrboro, just confirm with the driver that you are boarding a 100 bus headed towards the RTC, and you’ll be on your way. The RTC is quite close to the airport, and after departing Terminal 2, you’ll reach the RTC in just under 15 minutes.

Once at the RTC, you will find that every time bus 100 arrives, so do bus 700 (goes to Durham) and bus 800 (goes to Chapel Hill). Board 800, and about 30 to 35 minutes later, you’ll be in Chapel Hill at the UNC Student Union. If you’re headed to downtown Chapel Hill or Carrboro, it’s best to stay on to the first stop past the Morehead Bell Tower (can’t miss it), and then either walk up Columbia Street to Franklin, or if you’ve got heavy luggage, catch any Chapel Hill Transit bus with a name that doesn’t end in “X” at Sitterson Hall heading north to get to downtown, which is only 2 stops away.

Franklin and Columbia Streets – the Heart of Chapel Hill Transit

Now that you’re in downtown Chapel Hill, if you’re at the corner of Franklin and Columbia, you have easy access via Chapel Hill Transit to pretty much everywhere the bus system goes in either Chapel Hill or Carrboro. The F, J, or CW bus will take you to downtown Carrboro in about 7-8 minutes. The NS will take you to Southern Village or the north end of Chapel Hill. The D or F can take you to eastern Chapel Hill.

Transit Information is Text and Smartphone-Ready in the Research Triangle

If you’re reading this for the first time, I can understand how this may all sound a little complicated. That said, if you’re a visitor, there are lots of ways to get customer information about these and other bus services. Perhaps the most useful are the Transloc and Transloc Rider apps in the usual smartphone stores. They are free and integrate real-time arrival information for every bus and every bus stop in the Triangle. You can see the system in action on the web as well at triangle.transloc.com You can also call 919-485-RIDE to speak to customer service representatives who can provide trip planning assistance.

Fares

The base fare for Triangle Transit for a one-way trip is $2.25. Chapel Hill Transit routes within Chapel Hill and Carrboro are free to everyone, so unless you’re planning to ride Triangle Transit multiple times in one day, paying for regional buses by trip with cash is the best, most cost-efficient way to pay. More information on fares, including youth and senior discounts, can be found here.

North Carolina Carfree Commute Map 2012!

Posted on March 19, 2014 by patrick

Recently I started following @shanedphillips on Twitter after reading a terrific guest column he wrote at Planetizen. Shane lives carfree in Los Angeles and blogs at www.betterinstitutions.com. I’ve added him to my blogroll today- please check out his writing.

He is also hashtagging this month as #marchmapness on Twitter as he is creating carfree commute maps for various states. I asked him about NC, and he whipped this map up in less than a few hours. Thanks, Shane!

For Carrboro, three of the four primary Census Tracts that make up most of town have non-car commute rates of over 20%. If you zoom in you will see that there is a big change in non-car commuters from Census Tract 107.05 to Census Tract 107.06, where non-car travel drops from 24.9% to 6.4%. My first read on this was “well, the F bus goes up North Greensboro St and Hillsborough Rd, but then turns back south on Old Fayetteville Rd- that should explain it.”

But look again- while transit commuting falls from 7.6% to 4.8%, the real drop in non-car commuting comes from the loss of Bike and Pedestrian commuting. In 107.05, over 17% of commuters walk or bike to work.. But in 107.06, only 1.6% of commuters bike, and nobody walks. Also interesting is that if you go one Census Tract *further* away from the employment center of Chapel Hill / Carrboro, bike commuting actually *increases* to 2.6%.

To me, this is an indicator of how powerful proximity to a significant mixed-use destination can be on transportation choices. The Census Tracts closest to downtown Carrboro and Chapel Hill have very significant numbers of people commuting without cars.

What do you see of interest in this great tool that Shane created?

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Urban Planning for the 21st Century

Category Archives: Durham